Global Beverage Forecast Press Release
25 March 2013
Global Beverage Outlook to 2018: Asia to add the equivalent of 1.5 times current West Europe beverage consumption by 2018
Global Commercial Beverage Growth by Region and Category, 2013-18F (CAGR)
Canadean’s provisional estimates for 2012 indicate that global commercial beverage growth was on a par with that in 2011 in an environment still rocked by global financial fragility, and political instability in some regions. Hikes in commodity costs put further pressures on producer margins, whilst tax and VAT increases inevitably impacted on retail prices in many key markets.
All regions registered positive performance, with the exception of West Europe, where the depth of the eurozone crisis in several major markets, was further exacerbated by the effects of the unfavorable summer weather conditions on soft drinks and beer consumption. Asia’s contribution continued to gather pace; representing in soft drinks alone some 30% of global incremental consumption. Increasing white collar consumer affluence however is fueling the uptake of spirits in China and India. Within the wine market, China is again the one to watch, as demand continues to escalate and expand into rural provinces.
Canadean’s 2013 global market incremental volume prediction highlights clearly the shift in the beverage landscape over the decade, and the heavy toll of the eurozone crisis on European countries in recent years. Of the top ten major volume growth markets in 2013, five are from Asia (China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Thailand) and two from Latin American (Brazil and Mexico). Over 50% of global incremental volume in 2013 is forecast to emanate from the five Asia countries. Included within the top ten are the USA, South Africa and Saudi Arabia, driven primarily by gains in soft drinks. At the other end of the scale, the heaviest losses are forecast to be borne by the four most economically stricken European countries - Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. In all four cases, soft drinks will see the highest contraction in volume.
Canadean’s long-term forecasts indicate that whilst global commercial beverages gains will continue to ride around the 4% mark, the momentum in the migration in volume growth to emerging markets will gear up. By 2018 Asia is forecast to represent close to 50% of total beverage consumption, representing an increase of ten percentage points over the last decade. Some 40% of the world’s soft drinks and beer respectively, and nearly 80% of spirits will be consumed in Asia by 2018.
Major producers will be focusing on harnessing the as yet untapped opportunities offered by lower income and rural areas in emerging markets, exploiting local flavors and preferences and investing in new sub-brands. In a world fraught with economic instabilities and increasing raw material supply issues, strategic sourcing of raw materials along with investment by producers in innovation will be vital in supporting global beverage consumption growth going forwards.