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Multi-variate Forecast Modelling

The assignment

Our client, a global manufacturer of soft drinks, wanted to find a robust but efficient process to identify the most attractive new product development and M&A opportunities across a pre-defined region.

It was vital to our client that the project was conducted in partnership with their own country managers to ensure full representation of local market nuances and trends, as well as ensuring 'buy-in' at a local level to the process as a whole.

Approach and delivery

Our approach involved a number of key stages:

  • The construction of a multi-variate forecasting model which integrated key macroeconomic variables, as well as weather variables
  • Discussion and alignment of forecasts with country managers
  • Construction of both value and profit forecasts in order to identify best profit opportunities across the next three and ten years
  • Identification and analysis of the key players operating within the most potentially profitable country and category combinations
  • Assessment of key players, their acquisition potential, and fit with the clients overall strategy and brand portfolio

Impact and benefits

The project delivered a consensus forecast, agreed and signed off by the client, which became their definitive forecasted view and was used for their strategic planning process. The client also received a shortlist of M&A targets, which was then successfully used to approach likely prospects with a view to ultimately increasing volume and value share via acquisition.